Selecting the winner of the Kentucky Derby is simple right? Just select the preferred and then after the two most exciting moments in sports only go money your tickets.
That plan has worked in a row, starting with Orb at 2013, who returned $12.80 for a $2 win wager, and for example last year at which Justify got the job done as the favorite, returning his backers $7.80. What the heck is happening?
By 2005 until 2012 the average win mutual was $41, and we had two upset winners who paid over $100–Giacomo ($102.60) in 2005 and Mine That Bird ($103.20) at 2009.
This year Game Winner is the 9-2 morning line favorite after the scrape of Omaha Beach on Wednesday.
The Bob Baffert trainee is the real deal, the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last year, resulting in him winning the Eclipse Award for high juvenile of 2018. He has lost both of his starts this year, but put in strong efforts in runner up finishes.
He is a logical favorite but must cope with two of the stablemates that both have strong credentials, Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner up Improbable. They’re the co-second choices on the morning line at 5-1.
Yes, Hall of celebrity Trainer Bob Baffert, who has saddled the Triple Crown winner in two of the past four decades will be sending out the top three gambling choices in the race. It will be the first time in the history of the Kentucky Derby a trainer has had the three gambling choices.
That’s a lot of firepower for one barn and makes it only a little less probable a longshot is going to win this season’s edition.
But they still need to conduct the race. About Kentucky Oaks Day, we watched the winner juvenile turf filly of 2018 Newspaperofrecord go down to defeat chances of 1-5 at the Edgewood (G3).
Thus, let’s search for three Derby longshots that May Have a chance to be in the hunt when they come in the stretch beneath the Twin Spires on Saturday day:
Tacitus (8-1)
Tacitus is coming from a good looking win in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct going nine furlongs, He started off his three-year-old campaign by winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). He broke his maiden on a wet track and contains a strong off track pedigree. He is by Tapit and also the first foal to race out of the stakes winner Close Hatches, a multiple Grade 1 winner who earned $2.7 million and was the champion older female in 2014.
The colt is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, who has not had any success in the Derby (0 for 8, the best finish with Hofburg last year (seventh). The Wood hasn’t been a successful race within the past 15 years or so. We have to return to Funny Cide in 2003 to find the last Derby winner to prep there. Overall 20 Derby winners utilized the Wood as a prep. The colt looks as if he still has some upside and should get a good trip sitting mid-range with an ideal place.
Code of Honor (12-1)
Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby with Orb from the slop. I have liked this colt since his runner up finish in the Champagne (G1) last year in his second career start. He failed to shoot in the Mucho Macho Man within his three-year-old debut, checking in fourth, and bounced back with a clever triumph in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in 9-1.
Last out in the Florida Derby (G1) he was bumped coming out of the gate, raced near the back of the bunch behind a dawdling pace and made up some ground late. He desires pace and may not get it, but I am confident jockey John Velazquez will get this man close enough he will have an impact late.
Spinoff (30-1)
Trained by Todd Pletcher who has two Derby wins under his belt (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017), this colt is lightly raced and flying under the radar. He was third in the Saratoga Special (G2) last summer at Saratoga and has put in two remarkable efforts this season. He gathered first-level allowance firm by 11 3/4 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs off a six-month layoff. He then made his stakes debut in the Louisiana Derby (G2) where he monitored the early pace, took over the lead heading for home but got run down by By My Standards. He’s bred to like a wet track and is going to be a big cost. The exterior post isn’t perfect, but he’s sufficient tactical speed to maintain the mix early.
Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his entire card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for important buys can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

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