The NFL is regarded among the most difficult sports leagues in the world to disability and with great reason. Each week, there is numerous examples of bets which seem like absolute locks, but for whatever reasonthey fall flat and suck money out bettor’s bankrolls in the procedure.
Early in my career covering the sports betting arena, it became incredibly obvious that there’s no such thing as a lock — especially when it has to do with the NFL. If you dig deep enough, but there is a couple of spots in the NFL who have been extremely reliable over time.
Happily , I have access to Decades Value Of Data and uncovered several extremely profitable gaming situations which could hopefully give us a little head start in the 2019 NFL season.
Will some of these fall flat? Yes. Can some be continuing? Absolutely. Will the betting nerds of the internet say this report is worthless because trends provide you no predictive value? Now that right there is??a lock!
Whether you purchase tendencies or not, these are spots that continue to cover out, so let’s dive in and investigate if there’s logic to back these up:
Call it a Super Bowl hangover in case you’d like, but this awful record for Super Bowl losers in Week 1 of the following season is probably the end result of these being overvalued based on their previous year’s result. There’s a great deal of turnover at the NFL from season-to-season and many early year spreads are carrying the past year’s data into account.
This is generally a maximum matchup for its opening week of the season using the Super Bowl loser paired up with an adequate competition, and in such 19 games, the Super Bowl failure was only an underdog four times. So, yeah, you have the point, the Super Bowl runner-up is frequently overrated early in the year based on their standing from the year earlier.
Once you can bet itIn Week 1 of the season… or to be more specific, you can fade the Rams Who Are At -3 At Carolina.
Virtually the entirety of this remarkable streak in primetime has been on Pete Carroll’s view while Russell Wilson was under center for a large chunk of these games. We can’t properly measure inspiration, but it’s entirely possible that these are the sort of games that the longtime head coach/QB combo”get up” for. The simple fact that the Seahawks are one of the most consistent groups in this decade also helps.
As for Wilson”getting up”?? for playing under the bright lights in primetime, think that his career QB rating at night is 7.3 points greater than his generally late-afternoon starts. He also has a better completion percentage, a better touchdown-to-interception ratio, and most importantly, a much better win percentage (81.4percent versus 65%) at night vs the late afternoon.
Here’s a breakdown of Seattle at nighttime games in a few particular situations:
– Night matches in the home: 15-3-2 ATS since November 2017
– Nighttime games as an underdog: 11-2 ATS since December 2006
– Nighttime matches in December: 10-0 ATS because December 2011
– Nighttime matches vs teams with winning records: 11-3 ATS because December 2006
When you can bet itWeek 5 TNF hosting the??Rams, Week 10 MNF in San Francisco, Week 12 SNF in Philly, Week 13 MNF hosting Minnesota, Week 14 SNF at LA Rams
What a humiliation for Bills Mafia. Some may argue that this trend does not matter because it goes into well before the Brady-Belichick age, but it is really a much better number if you shrink it down to start in 2000 if Belichick became the Patriots’ head coach, as they have gone 14-4-1 ATS within this span.
Thus, what happens? Is this only due to the Patriots’ historic domination of the league and the Bills’ constant turnover at head coach and QB making them among the league’s most elite skip fires? Mainly, yes.
Particular the Belichick-era, the Patriots have a ridiculous 12 double-digit successes in Buffalo, but they’ve only been a double-digit favorite in three of the 19 games. They have been regularly undervalued and their league-best 60.8% ATS covering percent during the last 10 years is evidence of this.?? But, here’s the thing, they have a winning ATS listing across heaps of distinct spots, that is nuts considering they’re the most elite dynasty in football history.
It was a struggle to choose only 1 situation in this guide to highlight New England. Check out the other popular spots to the Patriots at the bottom of the Report.
When to bet itSunday, September 29 (Week 4)
This was an especially major money maker during the 2018 year when the home team moved 10-3-2 ATS on Thursday nights. I believe that it’s very clear the house team has this advantage on Thursday nights, because the street team is traveling on a short week, placing them in an embarrassing position with time to prepare while recovering from the prior week at a resort.
Extending this trend even further, the home team moved 71-53-6 ATS (57.3%) on TNF throughout the last ten decades, so this has a long history of becoming a profitable place. If on Thursday nights, then choose the house team.
When to wager itI shouldn’t have to tell you this
At first look, this seems more coincidental than anything, but Dallas has played considerably differently offensively on the street the previous four seasons. In three of the four years, there’s a pretty big disparity in their home/away scoring averages:
– 2018: 7 fewer points averaged in road games
– 2016: 5.8 fewer things averaged in road games
– 2015: 3.9 fewer things averaged in road games
We also have a similar pattern on protection with the team performing better on this side of the ball outside of Dallas in 3 of the past four seasons:
– 2017: 6 fewer things permitted on the Street
– 2016: 2.8 fewer things allowed on the Street
– 2015: 10 fewer things permitted on the Street
Going back to if this tendency starts on September 20, 2015, we have seen Cowboys’ home games have an average combined score of 46.10, while the average combined score within their street games drops appreciably to 38.84.
Is the transition out of the turf in Jerry’s Earth to other playing surfaces the difference maker here? It appears to be a clear reason, but maybe their offensive preparation for road games is not on par with their prep for games.
Either way, keep your eye on their street totals during this season. Each matchup differs, but when their O/U amount for street games is really on par with their averages at house games, I’d strongly lean towards this trend continuing.
It is no denying that this record coincides with the first period of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach of the Chiefs. He has a reputation as a unbelievable game planner and excellent coaches tend to know teams in their division very well.
The interesting thing about these games is that the 3 ATS loses all arrived vs the Raiders, while KC is a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games in Denver and San Diego/Los Angeles.
1 concern??this year is that is the top Chiefs team coming into a year in the Andy Reid-era, so they can face higher than regular spreads, at least early in this summer season.
Short time or recovering from a Dark Friday fistfight in WalMart without any time to handicap the NFL Thanksgiving matches? Only choose the favorites then and you’re likely to walk off with a profit. Including the past two seasons when the preferred covered the spread in each of six games, faves are on a complete tear on Thanksgiving in 31-11 ATS as 2005. And this trend is not just limited to the 2000s as favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a longstanding tradition as they’ve gone 53-29 ATS (64.5%) since 1984.
You would think dwelling teams could have a substantial advantage , as laid out at the TNF trend above, but home teams have been preferred in only over half of those games since 2005, and just went 18-23 ATS.
In addition, these games are interchangeable with ass-kickings, like the ones that we see WalMart on Black Friday, as 32 of??51 games as 2000 were determined by double-digits.
This year’s Thanksgiving games feature the Bears in Detroit, the Cowboys hosting the Greens as well as the Saints visiting Atlanta.
Some teams have been slow starters and need a few weeks to get going along with the Saints are at the peak of the list of early-season underperformers.
Back in 2018, we saw them choke in Week 1 and shed to the Bucs as a 10-point favored in the home. The next week, in another game, they barely snuck by the Hugh Jackson and Tyrod Taylor-led Browns, winning by three as a 9.5-point favourite. They then proceeded to cover the spread nine straight matches after the rough start.
In 2017, people watched them fail to cover in the initial fourteen days, then go to cover the spread in six of their next seven games. In 2016they divide the first two, then covered five of their next six. In 2015they did not cover in their first two games, then coated in four of their next five.
The main point is that Sean Peyton has done a bad job in getting off to a good beginning and Drew Brees hasn’t been eloquent early in seasons, recognized by his career September QB rating of 94.7 which is his lowest of monthly.
When to bet it: With the Saints favored by a touchdown in Week 1 MNF Vs The Texans, along with a Week 2 rematch of last year’s NFC Title game in which bettors are sure to play-up the revenge angle, these could be prime places to once more evaporate New Orleans in early season matches.
Pittsburgh was playing to poorer competition for almost two decades and has been especially bad in this place recently, moving 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points because the onset of this 2017 season. Most notably, they’ve been atrocious as a double-digit street favorite in this span, moving 1-10 ATS.
Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007 so many of the inefficiency as a big favorite is about his view. They have been an outright winner in nearly all of these matches, moving 22-5 under Tomlin, but they clearly underestimate poorer competitors, making them a great grin as a huge favorite.
Pittsburgh won’t have as many opportunities as a double preferred this year, particularly now that the Browns are more aggressive — they’ve been a double-digit favored eight times vs the Browns in Tomlin’s tenure as head coach — but they can find themselves as a enormous favorite in Week 4 at home to the Bengals and hosting the Dolphins in Week 8.
So, besides usually sucking over the last ten years, yet another thing these groups have in common is acting in a very distinct climate. It is possibly the most obvious thing to disability, with hot weather teams playing outside of the comfort zones from the colder weather , but it seems like oddsmakers are not accounting enough because of it.
Miami is the most intense case from those three Florida teams in this place because of playing in a branch with all the teams which are strongly affected by winter ailments. Going all of the way back to 1992, they are only 3-10 ATS in New England in December and January games. Since 1990, they’re 4-9-1 ATS at Buffalo in today, while they’ve managed to move 4-3 ATS in the Jets since 1996.
There’s a small bit of grey area here because I did not look at climate conditions for every one of the teams in those matches, but warm-weather city teams who perform outdoors are generally an awful stake when playing in cold weather.
Since 2014, there has been 82 games played with cold temperatures below 32??F (0?? C). Nineteen of these games involved warm-weather city clubs that perform outdoors (Jacksonville, Miami, LA Chargers, LA Rams, Tampa Bay, Oakland and San Francisco) and they moved 6-13 ATS.
Here is just another piece of reliable betting spots Through the Years:
– Patriots: 35-14??ATS??at home within their last 49 games
– Patriots: 16-5-1 ATS following a loss since October 13, 2013
– Patriots: 11-4-2 in divisional home games because October 2013
– Raiders: 4-21 SU in final 25 matches with 1 PM ET begin times
– Colts: 1-10 ATS in last their 11 Week 1 matches
– Browns: 2-19 SU in their last 21 at Pittsburgh
– Saints vs Bucs: UNDER at 15 of last 21 matchups
– Lions vs Vikings: UNDER in 16 of past 22 matchups
– Seahawks: 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs 49ers
– Panthers: 19-5-1 ATS following a road loss
– London Games: Favorite is 15-9 ATS
– Texans: 6-18-1 ATS at nighttime matches since 2012
– Redskins: 5-16 ATS at night games since 2013
– Broncos: 75-20-2 SU at home at September since 1970
– Titans:??7-24-1 ATS in their last 32 divisional road games
For more information like this each week during the NFL season, Read Me On Twitter. Superior luck this season, also as always, KEEP CHASING THAT PAER!

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